Noah Syndergaard is just fine despite recent slump
Though he’s nicknamed after a superhero and a Norse god, New York Mets pitcher Noah Syndergaard has looked relatively human lately. After starting the season with a blistering 1.91 ERA over his first 13 starts, Syndergaard has posted a rather pedestrian 4.20 mark over his last nine outings.
In most cases, this wouldn’t be a huge concern. Pitchers are not immune to slumps, and maybe this is just a normal stretch. But in Syndergaard’s case, there’s some reason to take a closer look at the issue.
Shortly after his poor stretch started, it was revealed Syndergaard has been pitching with a bone spur in his elbow this year. He initially denied those reports, but eventually confirmed the injury. Could that be the reason behind Syndergaard’s recent struggles?
That will be the focus of Yahoo Sports’ MLB Free Game of the Day. The game, which starts at 9:40 p.m. ET, can be streamed on the Yahoo Sports app, Yahoo’s Sports Home, MLB index, video home and this very post. Local blackouts apply, per MLB rules.
While there’s some evidence the bone spur could be impacting Syndergaard’s performance, there’s no reason for full-blown concern just yet. When you compare the splits from his first 13 starts against his last nine outings, it looks like some troubling trends are starting to emerge.
Over his last nine starts, Syndergaard’s fastball velocity is slightly down. His strikeout rate has also also dropped. On top of that, his walk rate and home run rate is up. When put that way, all of those things look alarming.
But when you take a look at the actual “decline” over that period, it becomes much easier to relax.
Noah Syndergaard | First 13 starts | Last nine starts |
|---|---|---|
FB MPH | 99.23 | 98.45 |
K/9 | 11.22 | 10.40 |
BB/9 | 1.27 | 2.92 |
HR/9 | 0.42 | 0.73 |
ERA | 1.91 | 4.20 |
FIP | 1.71 | 2.91 |
Syndergaard’s velocity may be down, but he’s still averaging over 98 mph with his fastball. That figure still puts him among the hardest-throwing starters in the game.
The same can be said of pretty much all of his “bad” stats in the column on the right. A 10.40 strikeout rate would rank ninth in all of baseball. Syndergaard’s elevated home run rate would rank 12th. His 2.91 FIP ranks fourth. The only average number there is his walk rate, but it’s still at an acceptable level. Still, you get the idea. Even “bad’ Syndergaard is pretty great!
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That’s not to make light of the bone spur. Even though the numbers are solid, there’s still a decent chance the issue is impacting Syndergaard’s performance. We don’t know if he’s more fatigued after starts, and we have no idea if he’s in more pain when he’s on the mound. We also don’t know if the injury has caused him to compensate in ways that make his pitches more hittable. All of those things are possible.
Even if that’s the case, Syndergaard’s poor 4.20 ERA over his past nine starts seems high. The strikeouts are still there, and the velocity is still strong. None of his numbers have seen a precipitous drop just yet, making this look more like either a normal slump, or an injury he can at least work through.
Over the course of a long season, these things can happen. While the bone spur makes Syndergaard’s slump slightly more concerning, it looks like he’s still capable of being a top level pitcher. Thor may appear human now, but it feels like he’s just one start away from regaining his immense power.
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Chris Cwik is a writer for Big League Stew on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at christophercwik@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter! Follow @Chris_Cwik
